Turkey Shortage Sparks Price Surge Despite Store Discounts Amid 40-Year Low
Source: Stores keep prices down in a tough year for turkeys. Other Thanksgiving foods may cost more (2025-11-24)
In 2025, the U.S. turkey industry faces unprecedented challenges, with the turkey population plummeting to a 40-year low due to bird flu and avian metapneumovirus outbreaks. Despite these setbacks, stores are actively reducing turkey prices or offering free birds to help consumers during a tough economic year. This paradoxical situation is driven by a 44% projected increase in wholesale turkey prices, according to the USDA, which reflects the supply shortage. Small farms like Old Brick Farm in Michigan have largely avoided disease outbreaks by maintaining strict biosecurity measures, but the overall impact on the industry remains significant. The reduced turkey supply has led to increased prices, yet consumers are still seeing discounts, partly due to aggressive marketing strategies. Beyond turkeys, the holiday season's costs are further affected by rising prices for ingredients, driven by tariffs on imported steel, which have increased costs for canned goods and other essentials. Recent industry data indicates that the turkey shortage is expected to persist into 2026, with experts warning that supply chain disruptions and climate change-related factors could exacerbate the problem. Additionally, the USDA reports that turkey exports have declined by 15% this year, as international demand shifts and supply constraints tighten. Consumer behavior is also evolving, with more households opting for alternative proteins or plant-based options, which could influence future turkey demand. Meanwhile, technological innovations in poultry farming, such as improved biosecurity protocols and disease-resistant breeds, are being accelerated to prevent future outbreaks. The federal government has announced new funding for research into disease prevention and farm resilience, aiming to stabilize turkey populations in the coming years. As families prepare for Thanksgiving, the industry’s resilience and adaptation strategies will be crucial in balancing supply, price, and consumer expectations in the evolving landscape of American holiday traditions.